Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 21-23 June, page-14

For those who are interested...

3 videos..
*The Middle East's cold war, explained... this is 2 years old but it is a good synopsis of the politics of Iran versus Saudi [10 mins]
*China's (8)trillion dollar plan to dominate global trade... about 1 year old, really good explanation of the Belt and Road [6 mins]
*US China Trade War Explained -Who Needs Who?... 3 weeks old... quirky but good explanation of the trade war from the US perspective [17 mins]

I am posting them in the order in which I think they should be watched. It is impossible to consider the current tension with Iran in isolation. It is not just the US against Iran... there are plenty of others with a dog in the fight.

My comment... in the 3rd video the presenter says... "whoever has the most leverage is probably going to end up winning at the end". That is exactly right. I am not sure, at the moment, what gold is going to do next week... but... the higher it goes the more that tips the leverage towards China's favour.
There has been speculation about how China will retaliate... rare earths got a mention [and will probably get a start] but China dumping US treasuries has been roundly rejected as a non-viable option. That's true only while gold is trading range-bound US$1200-$1400... but ceases to be true if the price doubles [no one actually knows how much gold China has accumulated but it is certainly more than the publicly announced figure]. The way the US conducts war is to inflict economic damage first... it seems entirely plausible to me that China will attempt to retaliate in kind.
This is the chart for gold over 20 years.... easy to see that $US1900 is possible... not that big a stretch to imagine $2800...imo... given we are not talking economics here, rather it is Realpolitik...