Thank you @struggling1 and regards to your son. We owe him a debt of gratitude and I hope you see him more often soon. Yes, you are right, we are relatively fortunate these days in many ways…thanks in no small part to people like your son and those before him.
Glad you liked the picture @dleb, that sounds like a nice memory. Thank you for your service…you must have had quite an interesting time…and so did your family from the sounds of things! I thought I would take a change from the monuments, though they are nice too.Since Anzac Day falls on a Sunday this year, we do not have a market holiday unless I've missed something. That's how it is here too. I always liked the dawn services there.
Knee-jerk reaction indeed, @telamelo. Kind of makes you say hmmm. I was still trying to figure it out myself other than what I had posted. You are no doubt aware that if you're glued in the mental tunnel of TA trading, tick to tick intraday, it can be hard to suddenly zoom out to analyze broad macro issues…but I finally pulled the seat away from the displays and I think the administration is bluffing and I think the market - and certainly the investment banks - believe he is. Doubling things does not seem practical, and they must know that. Maybe this is an initial bargaining salvo. They may get half that but not even sure about that. Their leverage is found in the close Senate majority, but interests to do with this kind of thing sometimes transcend party lines.
Today we had another short-covering rally here, so everyone who went long near SPX cash lows or ES futures 4130 last night or early this AM did well, and everyone who sold at 4183 or thereabouts told me they'd go out this weekend for a drink. I was impressed with the guys and girls and ex pit traders who do the index futures this week. What a rowdy bunch and good value. I don't often take my eyes off the charts to read and listen to what others are doing, but today was a welcome exception. Recent ES structure (in the profile) is testament to a market that can easily react to such news. Day timeframe players are driving much of the action you see in in the 4100 to 4200 range. That's not to say that they don't create opportunity (especially within a bracket) like strong hands could do -- it doesn't matter who is driving price if you are in; for in the absence of other time frame sellers, that can go on. Current market structure makes fast liquidation breaks easy and they can come out of the blue. At the same time, sharp recovery rallies can happen as we wait for tech earnings. @gypaetus made a good point in the weekly thread about that volume thing, everyone should read that is it applies to just about every instrument. As Gyp indicated, it things can travel a long way poor volume.In the charts below you will see a consolidation of the week as well as the standard day by day version. Well, it is back to the spreadsheets now to see what they may have in the works for next week. If you are long anything related to this action here, odds are you’ll be ok Monday. Hope everyone made it through the week ok and can relax for a few days.
