Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 23-26th Mar, page-51

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Diver Dan

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24/03/18

10:29

Post #: 31996051
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Originally posted by Diver Dan ↑

US Market Update

Color on the Close

The close seemed highly technical, very methodical. Some visible worry from retail traders was apparent.

Dow and Nasdaq weekly declines were sharp.

Financial media summation in a phrase: "Just act natural".
Investment advisors paraded before the cameras urge investors to stay put. News desk personalities say that with the signing of the Omnibus Spending Bill, the president has now become a centrist. Imo, minimization of the problems in Washington continues and makes for good trade set ups next week.

After retaliating with only 3B in tariffs, multiple sources report that China intervened on Thursday to stop their own market rout. They will continue to intervene.

IT and Financials relatively weak - Energy was the strongest sector for most of the session and financials led the declines into the close.

Electronic session May WTI (65.74 +2.24%) bid higher into the close - shameless shenanigans, expectation of turmoil in the mid-east or safety rotation; or all of the above.

April Gold (1347.3 +1.50%) strong again but had a deliberate pause after the pit close as it nears 1353.00 congestion area. The US Dollar briefly broke below yesterday's range and is (89.516 -.42%) on the session.

Relative to yesterday's action, the VIX had a muted run and ended up
+6.56% after testing 2 March resistance. Again, the SPX selling was methodical.

SPX/ES/SPY: 2588.26/2596.50/258.05
ES tried to come into balance within Thursday's thin lower range and failed. The contract tested the 150 sma on Thursday night and the SPX tested the 200 day in the cash session. RSI quite depressed but MACD and NYMO nowhere near at their deep ends. While bulls deserve a bounce here, anyone but short term traders will be cautious.

Keep an eye out for delta hedging.

Market Internals
Advance-Decline Lines: -1740. NYSE Breadth: -5.08:1, NASDAQ Breadth: -5.81:1. NYSE TICK: Cumulative TICK sees a steep downtrend from 14:00 onward again. TRIN: 1.29

NYSE MOC: ended +116M but carried a negative balance deeper than -2B going into the close - that is called dipping your toe in the water. NYSE composite volume was above average and slightly higher than yesterday.

Implied Volatility
VXJ8:20.45, VXK8:19.34, VIX:24.87

Debt/Bond/Treasury
ZNM8 up +.12%. The action in the long bond was weak relative to the 2 and 5 year notes. The 10 Year yield remained near 2.83%.

S&P Futures Now

View attachment 1026628

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Correction: The USD index did not quite break below yesterday's range. Apologies.

XAO Value at posting: 5,929.0
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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