Some thoughts to consider over your Sunday morning breakfast. (Just what you need)
Genome sequencing these days in a speedy art, and the sharing of it even quicker. As both are being done all over the world, especially in industrialized nations, the genome of
SARS-CoV-2 in different countries has shown 14 distinct mutations, normally associated with one mutation per generation, measured from the outbreak to March 23rd.https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10965.pdf
Therefore, the virus now should be in its 16th generation, taking about 1 week per generation globally (rounding up), based on number of days so far in 2020, and only one week of 2019 (the data states from Dec'19 with no precise date, to March 23rd. I've therefore used only one week of December as the mutation rate is likely to be reduced in December as the virus was contained to a single nation, and requires host cell diversification for mutation growth).
Unfortunately, the bulk of the mutations are found in Europe, and are mostly specific to the Spike Protein where the host cell ACE2 receptor relationship to virus is strengthened, which of course effects transmission rates, and probably accounts for the greater transmission there. (see above link).
Considering that natural selection favours transmissibility over pathogenicity, I wonder what transmission efficacy will look like at generation 52.
When did they say that vaccine will be ready?
