Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 4-6 Nov, page-35

So the election.......

History shows we can use the 10% rule as a guide to 2 horse race related to equities.

Currently chances - Clinton 70%, Trump 30%

So using that guide by this time next week we will either see

Clinton win - Relief rally of 3% - DOW retesting highs

Trump win - Uncertainity kicks in 7% - DOW testing support at 17000


Now its just the possible immediate impact

Clinton

History shows the devil you know (Clinton) sees the markets gain between 20-30% in the 12 mths following which means DOW pushing 21000-23000 this time next year with a Clinton victory.

Now onto Trump.....

Opinion 1

"L" shaped move - which means markets move lower and say lower over time. This would happen it Trump provides further uncertainty post election win or if he makes decisions that impact global markets.

Opinion 2 (worse case)

For example.....traiffs on overseas products to "make america great again" by creating manufacting. Problem with this if America slows imports from Europe and China due to tariff.

Europe end up deeper in recession due to falling exports. China could well default and see sharp decline in growth.

Potential for Trump global bear market in worst case

Opinion 3

"V" shaped global markets. Trump provides confidence in the economy post victory and provides more opportunities for small business and tax breaks.

Markets could well see new highs.


Just a few opinions to think about

All IMO

Have a good weekend all