Mesoblast - needs no introduction. Market cap - around $1.4B
Mesoblast is unblinding covid ARDS results at the 60 days mark (in about 1 weeks time) and will be reviewing the results with Novartis. In November, they announced a collaboration with Novartis which was positively received by the market. Then when they discontinued their Covid ARDS trial, there were suggestions that Novartis may walk away. The trial was discontinued because it looked like they wouldn't meet their primary end points. Once again, it appears that the real problem is their trial design and in particular for this one, the types of trial participants, rather than the actual therapy itself. My logic is that with the review of the results, Novartis will then close the agreement and proceed with a non-covid ARDs study. I still believe, rightly or wrongly, that the therapy is effective and that through analysis of the results, they will be able to target their patient groups better to maximise the benefits. Also with this knowledge, the non-covid ARDS trial will be better designed to avoid failures of the type experienced recently. And if the Novartis collaboration is finalised, this will provide a very strong boost to the share price. In the meantime, there seems to be a delay in the chronic back pain results so hopefully that doesn't stymie my expectations.
