XAO 1.17% 8,079.2 all ordinaries

Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 9-11 August, page-12

  1. 7,548 Posts.
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    I have a conspiracy theory...

    The move in the prices of the gold producers, although good, did not match the move in the price of gold itself... What I saw this week was profit taking, which is what I found surprising a few weeks ago when the gold price first starting moving in an obvious way. At the time, I put it down to the market disbelieving the move up in gold.

    For many months now there has been the disconnect between the traditional way bonds and stocks inversely behave... forever and a day it has always been the bond market is the safe haven when the stock market looks weak, but money has been pouring into both and the commentary has been..."which one is correct?"... This year, so far, markets around the World have been rising... while simultaneously... I am reading reports that there is now $15 Trillion in negative yielding debt [i.e. paying to own bonds]. There is only one explanation which makes any sense to me... the money going into bonds and the money going into stocks/assets is the same money...

    The only actors I can imagine capable of this level of manipulation are the central banks... and to be doing so in a coordinated manner. My guess is... circulating the money in this way would allow them to continue expanding the supply of credit. What I am suggesting is central banks are buying their own bonds [perhaps by cross ownership i.e. the Fed buys EU issuances and vice versa]

    I am adverse to subscribing to conspiracy theories... but...

    I am a reformed gold bug. A few years ago I thought gold was a 'store of wealth' and all that... but these days I consider it to be an entirely fictitious market. Gold has no 'intrinsic value', it is merely a convenient lie which people can retreat to when the usual 'lies' stop working. From a FA perspective, the global economy is sick and getting worse... if my conspiracy idea is correct we are now moving into the 'Big Lie' scenario... which means the gold price will be hard to repress. But, imo, if the underlying facts are not honestly addressed then gold will only be the final bubble.
 
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