Short Term Trading Weekend Thread 14-16 Sept, page-30

Update

US on Friday's close: SPX: (+0.03%), IXIC: (-0.05%), Dow: (+0.03%) and RUT: (+0.43%).

SPX closed at the safe space after exploring both ends of the range intraday. The movements were forced by news events but 2905 prevailed. SPX short term view, not updated.

Friday's action was influenced by two news factors. First there was increasing clarity to Thursday's speculation that the president's former campaign manager will be cooperating with the office of Special Counsel - some are likely tied to foreign interference in the US election. A trial which was to begin in three days has been avoided by this guilty plea on two counts - one to defraud the US and one conspiracy charge.

Secondly, you have the administration talking about going ahead with the $200B in tariffs despite any impending deal with China. I take this outburst on Friday as being influenced by the first and more serous item. Even some of the trade war reporters at the WJS -whose editorial board has been relatively sympathetic to the president - are publically giving him some cheek over his tweet assault on the idea that he was going to go easy on China.

Comment

A word about the rotten core analogy. Just want to make clear that I am talking less about fundamentals or trade war issues and more about the long term influence of human integrity. The US market can go much higher if participants continue to compartmentalize the issues; but it is not foolish or pessimistic to keep eyes open to issues of character of policymakers. The market will do what it does with the cards dealt, but thug life does not always have a glamorous end. Short term traders won't worry too much about these perceived issues as they should have little effect on their bottom line.

SPX Futures Close