Short Term Trading Weekend Thread 14-16 Sept, page-7

Hey @Freehold,

Replying to your post here from the weekly.


I can understand why you've removed all of your chips from the table, I've also lowered my current holdings as it seems most are getting sold into.

There are similarities with now and the 1920-1929 bull market, including the trade tariffs which was said to be a major contributor of The Great Depression..



Although a decent correction (20-30+%) is inedible from which I believe will come from the looming Australian credit crunch.
I'm not sure it will be a full on bear market or this year.

My understanding is that the Australian government has only used 'fiscal stimulus' polices in the past and have yet to use 'quantitative easing' unlike most other countries (EU/US) so we still have that "padding" up our sleeve in the event of a fall..


We also have had a decent correction of around 20% in 2015/2016 and more recently a smaller correction in February this year.


My thinking is that most of the worlds governments are all in too deep from their monetary policy spending and that the stop button has been lost, so essentially the "music" can't be stopped for now...

The stop button will eventually be found but I don't believe just yet..



(I'll research more into commodity prices and cycles similarities over the weekend