Just on FBR there was some supply overhang created recently with escrow ending and option conversions.
With regard to shares, 148.5m were released from escrow on 20/11. Of those, 106m are controlled by Mark and Mike Pivac and should be "sticky". Selling by Mark would have triggered a sub-holder notice but Mike would not (I think). Most of the rest are owned by seed investors in Goldwing Nominees and could have been dribbled on to market.
With regard to options, 34.2m 2c options with expiry 12/11/2019 exist. I've seen 3B notices for exercise of ~23m of these (7/11 and 24/11). Given that these options had another 2 years to run, you have to assume they were exercised in order to sell the shares now.
IMO, a catalyst for another run would be CAT stumping up the remaining US$8m to take their Tranche 2 shares at 20c (Tranche 1 was for US$2m at 10c). CAT has until 30 June 2018 to exercise the Tranche 2 option. Given that FBR has been trading down to ~16c it makes you wonder whether CAT could have been accumulating down here.
