short term trading

This is a post I placed on the day traders forum, but is probably more appropriate on the short term trading forum.
Normally I would not post about an $11 plus stock on the day trades thread but given recent ASX announcements relating to NUF, I believe in the short term it could present a trading opportunity in the short term. Here is part of one of my posts on the NUF thread.
We all have different investing strategies, but given the recent ASX announcement, there is the real possibility of perhaps another $2-$3 in the next few weeks. If we worked on say $2 gain on $11 entry over 2 weeks this equates to about 18%, but on an annualized basis it is something like 468% on your funds.
If you have opportunities that look like producing more than 18% (468 % annualized)over say 2 weeks by all means move on. Personally I am prepared to wait 2 weeks & see what transpires with NUF & possible suitors.
In the past these type announcements normally lead to some type of offer being made. In this case the suitor would be looking for a friendly offer rather than launching a hostile takeover, given Mr Doug Rathbone currently holds 11% still.
We should also be aware in many takeover batttles there can be more than one suitor & this is when it becomes very profitable to be a shareholder, as the rival suitors try and outbid each other. Given the market share of NUF & its international presence there could easily be more than one suitor out there.
If a friendly bid were to occur it probably needs the consent of Mr Rathbone given he holds 11%. The question becomes would he be a like seller? Well in May this year he was prepared to sell down 1.75m at $11.25 for $19.7m at NUF's most recent fund raising.
But a Nufarm announcement from 9th November 2004 also gives us other clues on Mr Doug Rathbone thinking about his own retirement & his private family businesses. Here is a copy of that announcement:
"9th November 2004.

Company Announcement


1.35 million shares sold by CEO, Doug Rathbone


Nufarm Limited’s Managing Director and major shareholder, Doug Rathbone, yesterday sold 1.35 million shares in the company, leaving him with a relevant interest in 29.4 million shares (approximately 18% of issued capital).

The shares were sold in a single parcel to an Australian institution for $7.95 per share.

The sale occurred within one of the stated windows for trading in the company’s stock by directors and senior management and was conducted in a fully informed market.

Mr Rathbone said proceeds from the sale of the shares would be used to reduce debt in the family wine business.

He reiterated his statement of earlier in the year that he looks forward to continuing in his role at Nufarm until at least the age of 65 (currently 59), assuming the Board continues to positively view his contribution to the company.

Mr Rathbone stated that he has never been more confident about the performance and future prospects of the company."
My thoughts:
Whilst none of us can guess what thoughts go through Mr Doug Rathbone mind, he has shown he is prepared to sell stock in NUF in the past & even 5 years ago was looking at the age of 65 as a key point in his business life. Without doubt Mr Rathbone is a very clever & successful businessman who must be reviewing his current situation & involvement with NUF.
Regards
Buffett