Crazy dictator or Mastermind ? Foolish blackmailer or defender of his nation?
I leave this question open : time will tell. We don't know it right now, but we have to trade it.
I always wonder why people are betting on a nuclear holocaust. I do not think all those who bought gold -0.76% at 1350-60 in the hope of 1.400 and 1.500 in a week have asked themselves: is there anyone who pays my gold -0.76% long positions if there was a nuclear war?
You can hate KimJong-un . You can say he is crazy. You might think he wants to destroy the civilized world with a nuclear attack.
But come on . Think a little bit all the way: why would a 20M nation go against the whole world...?
I say all what he is doing is just trying to protect his country against an invasion. It's not the best way but we have to say it is effective.
If you have nuclear weapons noone will invade you if you don't attack.
I think KimJong-un is ready. By now the whole world knows he has a working nuclear weapon. He also has missiles . He can shoot over Japan.
So he is good. He didn't attack anyone he just showed he can attack. As he is well educated I'm quite sure he made a few coins on the gold -0.76% pop.
So by now he has as much plutonium as he wants... Last night's missile launch made no sense at the first sight. But watching Friday's close it looks to me someone exited the long position or entered short position in that midnight bounce. The momentum was killed immediately after the bounce. Only one person knew that's a good point to enter a short position or close the long positions: KimJong-un .
The volume of this period 3 times higher than the average volume . (Berlin time 23:00-3:00). With a stop run I would say that's a normal volume after a missile launch... But there was no stop run.
If my speculation is right I think we are going to have a de-escalation of this North Korean situation next week. It will have more effect on gold -0.76% than the FOMC, or the dollar drop/bounce because 2/3 of this rally was produced by these North Korean Games .
Technically we are attacking the lower trendline again. It's a double resistance zone as the 100 EMA is also at this level...
During the last few weeks as soon as price tagged the 100 EMA it bounced almost immediately and surged higher.
This time we have a character change:
1. After price nearly tagged the 100 EMA (09.12) it has bounced and tested back the neckline.
2. This was followed by a drop to the trendline and the 100 EMA again: this time the 100 EMA was broken down.
3. A bounce is coming again (Friday's missile launch) - this is the bounce where I think KimJong-un exited the gold -0.76% longs or entered the short position ( maybe both) and the second tag of the neckline was followed by one more drop.
The RSI is oversold though but this is the point it can be oversold for days. I'M watching the MACD : it's turning down. While we are in the negative territory at the MACD the decline continues...
We closed exactly on the trendline . And I think this time the trendline will be broken down violently. Especially if KJ is aiming the de-escalation of the NK 3.25% situation next week....
