Everyone can thank Malcolm Turnbull if we get Shorten as PM.
Bill Shorten: he's not Mr Popularity, but he could be PM this year
Late last year, Bill Shorten reached a milestone.
He's now been Labor leader for longer than Paul Keating. It may not seem like much, but in recent history, being Labor leader is one of the most precarious jobs going in federal politics.
At four years, three months and seven days, Shorten's lasted longer than not just Keating but Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard (who each made about three years), Simon Crean (two years) and Mark Latham (one year). Only Kim Beazley, who had the job for five years in his first stint, has been leader for longer than Shorten in the days since Bob Hawke.
In 2018, Shorten could also be on the cusp of another, much bigger achievement. It's possible that by the time the footy finals roll around in late September, he will be prime minister.
With the next federal election on the cards sometime between next August and May 2019, Labor has enjoyed a clear, winning lead in the polls for well over a year. In December, both the Fairfax-Ipsos poll and Newspoll had Labor in front, 53 per cent to the Coalition's 47 per cent. This week, the Guardian Essential poll posted the same result.
