Persistent non-holders posting here means it must be buy time.
Statista figures:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1311122/global-bnpl-market-value-forecast/BNPL global revenue forecast:
2021 = $120B USD
2022 = $214B USD
2023 = $300B USD
2024 = $386B USD
2025 = $481B USD
2026 = $576B USD
2023-2026 CAGR = 28%
ZIP has $650M revenue run rate as of Q1 FY23 x 28% CAGR = $1.745B revenue run rate forecast for Q1 FY27
Global buy now, pay later (BNPL) transactions are predicted to increase by over 450 billion USD between 2021 and 2026. This would mean a further acceleration of what was seen between 2019 and 2021 - when the alternative payment method increased by almost 400 percent. Regardless, BNPL reached a global market share of around three percent in 2021 - with eight out of 10 top global buy now, pay later markets worldwide being located in northwestern Europe. The market share of BNPL services in domestic e-commerce payments in both Sweden and Germany, for instance, was around ten times higher than the market share in global e-commerce payments.
Common names that spring to mind when it comes to BNPL include Klarna (Sweden), Affirm (United States), and Afterpay (Australia), as all three providers had millions of active users in 2021. The three are sometimes joined by Quadpay/Zip (United States) in some sources.
Hence, the big 4 are Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay acquired by Block & Zip.
Klarna valuation is down 85% to $6.7B USD in 2022 after peaking at $45.6B USD in 2021. CBA invested again during recent $800M CR.
Klarna $6.7B MC / $1.4B revenue = x4.8 multiple. Affirm $2.67B MC / $1.35M revenue = x2 multiple.
ZIP has $386.5M MC / $620M FY22 revenue = x0.62 multiple therefore highly undervalued compared to peers.
Using Affirm's lower revenue multiple of x2 x $620M revenue for ZIP = $1.24B MC or $1.62 SP.
Using Klarna's higher revenue multiple of x4.8 x $620M = $2.976B MC or $3.88 SP.
That all said,there probably is something to Klarna’s spin. Its valuation isa reflection of what its investors think, and doesn’t necessarily reflectwhat customers think, and it’s far from the only company to see such avaluation crash. Roughly a year-and-a-half on from itsbig IPO, Klarna’s rivalAffirm has also endured turbulent times, with itsshares plummeting over the past year — it too is now valued at roughly the sameamount as Klarna, after its market cap peaked last year at around $47 billion.
Sequoia partner Michael Moritz said that Klarna’s valuation is “entirely due to investors suddenly voting in the opposite manner” to the way they voted previously.
“The irony is that Klarna’s business, its position in various markets and its popularity with consumers and merchants are all stronger than at any time since Sequoia first invested in 2010,” Moritz said in a press release.
“Eventually, after investors emerge from their bunkers, the stocks of Klarna and other first-rate companies will receive the attention they deserve.”
So eventuallythey should all re-rate when sentiment becomes favourable again.
Cost of living in 2022 changed payment behaviour for online shopping in the United States, with five out of 10 respondents now using debit cards more often. This according to a survey held in 10 different countries across North America, Europe, and Latin America, and purely asked on whether cost of living had changed payment behaviour in those countries. Credit cards, BNPL, and crypto were all used more often, but neither saw the largest growth: 51 percent of respondents who changed their payment habits because of the rising cost of living in 2022 are paying online with debit cards more often than they did in the previous year.
Put/Call Ratio (blue line) with S&P500 (black line). Massive spike yesterday night in US & second highest since data commenced in 2007. Crispy fried shorts on the menu soon.