I agree with the Oracle.
To get to $23/dmt IO, the wheels would
have to fall off the cart in China.
It would then have to be pushed off the cliff!
Only a war with the west could bring a short term
pull back of that magnitude.
They have close to 3.9 Trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves!
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves
They carry a lot of local government debt and mountains of private debt but they own most of their own infrastructure. I suspect the housing
debt bubble will come home to roost but IMO there is no chance of that happening in the short term.
They also have a debt fueled stock market rally
which may come unstuck.
However the government and central bank has clearly shown they are prepared to act when necessary.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ak-of-gains-since-july-on-china-stimulus.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...oss-as-morgan-stanley-says-worst-is-over.html
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