I agree with the Oracle.
To get to $23/dmt IO, the wheels would
have to fall off the cart in China.
It would then have to be pushed off the cliff!
Only a war with the west could bring a short term
pull back of that magnitude.
They have close to 3.9 Trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves!
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves
They carry a lot of local government debt and mountains of private debt but they own most of their own infrastructure. I suspect the housing
debt bubble will come home to roost but IMO there is no chance of that happening in the short term.
They also have a debt fueled stock market rally
which may come unstuck.
However the government and central bank has clearly shown they are prepared to act when necessary.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ak-of-gains-since-july-on-china-stimulus.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...oss-as-morgan-stanley-says-worst-is-over.html
I agree with the Oracle. To get to $23/dmt IO, the wheels would...
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$20.10 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $61.88B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $20.26 | $20.49 | $19.94 | $337.2M | 16.71M |
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| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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| 2 | 38056 | $20.09 |
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| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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