Sharpshooter.
I also appreciate your honesty and explanation of your thinking and position.
Having thought about the capital structure issue you raise and the effect on P/E ratio, I remain comfortable being long ARI.Yes $2.2B is a lot of debt but gearing at 32% is right in the range that that most companies aim for and the debt has been used effectively in buying WPG IO assets and Moly Cop, both of which appear to have been integrated well, are accretive in early years and bring operating cash flow. ARI did do CR back in 2008 and 2009 ( like most others) so they are not averse to equity funding per se.
Also the debt funding is below 5%, so I think they have it covered.
I agree with the upsides that Bikemad has written about and would expand to add that the ramping up of IO is supported by ownership of the port, which is now being expanded.
The light steel business impairment has distorted earnings this year , but before abnormals 2012 was easily ARI's second best year on Net Profit and also EBITDA, so they are going OK.
With the upside potential , prudence of board and management, and with the projects underway and reportedly on budget, there is definitely upside potential this year for a P/E re-rating. I trust that ARI can deliver on this potential. They have been pretty reliable to date.
FT
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1 | 13000 | 0.033 |
1 | 100000 | 0.032 |
1 | 181100 | 0.031 |
3 | 1141378 | 0.030 |
3 | 378571 | 0.029 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.035 | 100300 | 2 |
0.038 | 453009 | 3 |
0.039 | 598837 | 6 |
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