LNC 0.00% 99.5¢ linc energy ltd

danhold - take a few deep breaths before sharing your conspiracy...

  1. 257 Posts.
    danhold - take a few deep breaths before sharing your conspiracy theories please. Let's focus on factors affecting the value of the company, which is all we can do to make informed judgment calls on whether to buy, hold or sell the stock. In my post which you quoted I laid out several reasons why my opinion was / is that the share price is overvalued which do not involve a shorting conspiracy amongst the entire Australian broker network.
    To reiterate:
    1. Overleveraged with high yield debt not supported by underlying cashflows
    2. Very significant near term capital program which is not fully funded
    3. In addition to point 2 significant semi annual interest payments which need to be funded
    4. Even larger longer term capital program to unlock the value of the Proved and Probable oil reserves (Umiat / Wyoming / Texas Gulf Coast) which is not funded
    5. The company announced to the market that it would seek to raise capital but has not yet secured that capital, a highly unusual move which will naturally put pressure on the share price (why buy now when someone can participate in the raising at a lower price?).
    Additionally I believe that many of their assets (Umiat / Arckaringa / UCG) are highly speculative in nature and are unlikely to generate material commercial cash flows for a long time, if ever, but that is merely my opinion.
    All of the above are clear reasons why the share price is under pressure. It's naive and simplistic to blame the share price pressure on a massive conspiracy amongst institutional / broker market participants.
 
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