Oslo, I don't believe the increase in non-bearing trees compared to total bearing (without knowing retiring trees) is justifying a significant increase in supply in future years (see link below) - especially, with the ongoing drought that has significant impact on yield per acre (down 16% since 2011)
http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/attachments/201505almac.pdf
I assume new planting has been very limited in 2015 and will probably be the same in 2016 as well.
From my point of view the biggest risk to increased US supply is reversal of the drought, as such will increase yield per acre.
Shorters working hard, page-12
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