So, is it safe to say that if we have a discrepancy in price...

So, is it safe to say that if we have a discrepancy in price between 2 commodities relative to their price history, AND there is no long term fundamental shift for that price change, there is a strong probability that the history of relative price will reassert itself?


yes a strong possibility.

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John, I usually have a 1 to 1 win loss ratio in my trading of stocks.
What do you find your win to loss ratio is with spreads?



The ratio is better than 1 to 1 if managed correctly.

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Does Hot Copper discuss these spread opportunities or are they best found by doing your own research?

no one discussing it that I have found.

Best to do your own research and look at how they work in real time, this will take at least 12-18 months as you see situations develop.

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What is your capital allocation to a trade in % terms?

2% per position up to 10% on paper.

If it is a physical commodity spread it may be higher.

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Do you always use ETFs? (I use ETFs also)

I have used CFDs in the past, but mostly use ETFs now.

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I do not have long term data of commodity prices. Who would you recommend?

I use paritech for data, they have commodity data going back to 1979 for many commodites, and I use metastock for charts, but any provider that has long term data will do.