shorting fmg, page-65

I don't mind people taking contrary position, but I hope that most here who short don't follow kray's strategy demonstrated here (for their own sake) as most couldn't handle the loss:

* make a gut call
* don't have a stop loss
* if sentiment changes against them hold
* basically treat their capital without regard because they have other income "money easy come easy go. Especially in my profession, so I can take the hit and recover :P"

IMO irresponsible. Give it to me and I will chose red at the casino. If I win I'll take 25% as my commission and give you the rest. If I lose bad luck.

I agree with you bitzer ... India never makes headlines, but 1.3+ billion people, growth 6%+, ...

As for FMG, based on current production at current prices they can essentially justify the current SP. Based on the production they are targeting, price of iron ore could fall to around $70-$80 and the current SP could be justified. Low cost of production will keep most large Australia iron ore producers in business well after the price goes below Chinese and many other mines cost of production.

Every year there will be upward and downward shocks ... only the scale will vary. The longer term is what the longs look at. Kray is just hoping something goes in his favour in the short term. He's only holding for more than a week because he got his call wrong.

FMG is in my SMSF where I see no need to try to pick the lows or peaks in a short term trade.