I don't think there is any doubt that Mac Bank orchestrated the post GMM merge Big Short last year ( I have a couple of good sources on that to back up) and then accumulated in the 30s, then again shorted it in the 60s.
They may be behind a bit of opportunistic short trades but it would seem that they are more likely to be a bit confused that the same trick (negative report on supply + shorting would work again). Their new report was as close to promoting GXY as a good investment as anything that they have proposed.
We can't know for sure who the shorting is being done by.
The company would know - but its Fight Club rules never to out the exact source of the short trades. Simply because, they may well be established longs and its simply the nature of the beast that they will throw their weight around at times.
UBS, however, have been a constant source of shorting, profiting from their large position.
This time I think its pretty reasonable to see DB's hand trying the same approach as Mac Bank - but squarely targeting GXY, whilst the other banks and brokers were slower off the mark to play defense against the DSO-inspired down-ramp.
Galaxy is the lithium canary in the coal mine. Our lack of sp progress can hit the whole spec sector pretty hard.
PLS dodged a bullet by being in CR when the report hit or they would have been even worse effected (imo). I congratulate them on their financing but their MC only shows how undervalued Mt Cattlin is.
They are priced well above the combined MC of GMM+GXY when the mine opened in April last year and I think they may well be pushing it to claim any significant production next year.
Rather than gain value, they must now work very hard to justify that current valuation.
Mt Cattlin is already proving itself with solid production and there are now more brokers getting bullish about recovery gains this year. Perhaps they have been keeping in touch with production staff? The company has been a bit quiet about this subject, perhaps preferring for us to see the actual results in the increasing monthly shipments.
One thing is certain. If a competitor is claiming that larger hard rock mines will lead to certain mathematical production gains, they only need to look at Greenbushes. You can go back through the customs and Bunbury shipping data from Greenbushes and see how low the actual shipment data has been from that 7Mt plant. The bigger they get, it seems the more is lost in recovery from inefficiencies.
For a well-established operation, they have only hovered around 50-60% recovery rates for a long while now. This was one of the themes at the recent Montreal conferences. New lithium entrants should be careful about making grandiose claims about large production, and planning very large initial production infrastructure. Starting smaller and proving up production rates was better than initially biting off too much to chew, even if it seemed less impressive to potential investors. Building new operations at large scale also face much larger logistical challenges and could fail more impressively. Experience and a steady hand is the key, even when the market seems feverish about making progress quickly.
Back to the shorting - I guess the DB report was so effective because things were looking like the argument over supply-demand was virtually settled once BlackRock took up a sub-holding.
Same as last year. The stop-loss crashing was so quick that it took a while for us to regroup.
I just don't see BR as the source of this downward pressure. I think Galaxy may have found a good LT holder in them, that don't need to play the same games as these small oz banks and funds. Perhaps naively, I see some of their actions, standing up to Big Fossil Fuel as being a positive voice for accountability and positive change away from ancient polluting industries.
I think the DB report would have sent them scurrying back to their own research - as it did with all of us - before deciding it was a crock.
Seems the Commonwealth fund also agreed that things were looking too good to ignore the growth of this company over the next few years.
I said a while back that the reports showed BR had shown their LT interest in lithium production stocks as they hadn't sold through ORE's spectacular 50% drop and the pattern looks like it will repeat itself here, instead, calmly accumulating on the way back up.
The main difference with ORE is that they were shorted on the back of production and profit down-grades and likelihood of CR for expansion. We have had no change in substantial holding notices through this period, despite the massive churn in shares.
GXY has been ridiculously shorted on profit and production upgrades and a fairly aggressive start to the year by the company with expansion in 2 continents. Directors bought on market, which effectively proves that the company has no short term plans for CR.
ORE shot up $1 once the covering started and has managed to hold that re-rate, even with 20% of its shares shorted. We may well see something very similar. I'm betting on at least one day where we jump 15-20c coming up very soon.
Good to see that new SDV video
@Thesi posted. I had a quick look at the company that was featured in the vid. Andina Perferaciones have also been working on Cauchari and got a bit of glowing press as the premier Argentinian drilling and hydrological test team.
It shows the company sticking to their MO - to always hire the best. And the results so far have been that their operations, once established perform, or exceed the spec that they publish.
@bobsacramento has contributed some really good research too about brine and magnesium, enough to finally cast ML's anti-SDV tweets as so utterly biased to beggar belief. Dr Mehta, the guy running the show at SDV was studying brine and flotation techniques before most here were born. 12 months ago ML's posts here on HC were the most anti-brine of any commentator.
How he could categorise SDV's team as inexperienced, when Dr Mehta owns a joint patent over some of the very same processes that he is trumpeting? Enough said.
Anyway. Who cares about any of this fundamental stuff?
Everybody and anybody who reads these threads can see the real progress of this company.
My guess is that the company had planned for the JB drilling results to coincide with the consolidation, but a delay with their release left the window open for a bit of manipulation.
At the end of the day, I have more cheap shares in my pocket thanks to the shorters, and nothing has changed by view that we should be heading back to punch through to a new high this year.
Today we're seeing some of the BS getting washed off pretty fast as the new FY money finds a home in one of the best bargains and growth stocks on the ASX.
Go Galaxy and good luck to all holders.
