Yes, some weird management stuff has been hard to stomach at times, it's a shame because financially and pipeline wise the company is exceptional right now and the short sellers ongoing position looks tenuous. They are emboldened by the Michelin catered Soirees in Monaco, the share grant to some nobody like you mentioned, missed deadlines but for me personally it is the very slack share buyback - much was promised (along with many fighting words) but not delivered on at all to this point in time with just 50K shares bought back while shorters can manipulate the market to their hearts content. It is like announcing a dividend and then not paying it out. But despite this I live in hope that they will deliver on the pipeline, they have delivered a rare FDA approval only a few years ago, their financial performance is exceptional and the molecule itself is just amazing and could benefit many, many people on this planet.
A reminder of what was presented to the AAD a few months back. It is Big news and worth remembering that none of this is priced in at all with CUV. The Clinuvel FDA approved drug for treating Vitiligo - looks like it works well. Let's start talking about Vitiligo,what will the share price be worth if that is approved?Only one analyst really pricing in Vitiligo right now and coming up with a PT near $50, the others averaging around mid $20s for EPP. And I think it was Wilsons just upgraded their PT to about $30?
From what we know the blockbuster Phase 3 into Vitiligo seems to be tracking well. The recruitment completion for CUV105 in Oct 24 was stated recently. FDA submission in just 2 years 2026 stated. Vitiligo TAM mentioned $4.5 BILLION USD and 9% penetration years 1-2 giving $490 - $570 Million USD. Lots of centres already set up to administer and more to come - targeting 120 with each one handling about 50 new patients per year (ie ~6000). Compelling evidence of the effectiveness of Clinuvel treatment of Vitiligo shown and very supportive statements from experts. I think standard of care very likely and the beautiful thing is the drug is already FDA approved so safety very well established and the path to approval much easier.Just looking at those numbers it can be seen how transformative Vitiligo will be for the company, and it's close. Short sellers seem to be betting it won't be approved along with everything else not to mention their absolute monopoly position and cash printing current profits with no competitors even close to entering the EPP market.
And I still like to come back to the ProMedicus comparison, PME is another rare biotech who like CUV has been growing revenues and profits for quite a few years now:
Pro Medicus FY2023 Revenue $125 Million,Profit after tax $60.6Million. Market cap $13.7 Billion. P/E 230 Clinuvel, FY2023 Revenue $78 Million,Profit after tax $30.6Million. Market cap $0.77 Billion. P/E 25
Pro Medicus certainly has some very happy shareholders because thatextra $13.0 Billion in market capfor just $30 Million more profitthan CUV is really something to admire.For me personally it just comes down to Vitiligo and the likelihood of success there with an already FDA approved drug, nothing else is priced in and you get all that other stuff like Tanning, Stroke, Parkinsons, VP and XP for free.PME doing a great job at protecting shareholder interests, attracting investment and fighting off shorters including via a share buyback. I expect PME to be growing quicker than CUV for a couple more years but assuming Vitiligo is approved then my opinion is Clinuvel will surpass PME profits after two years of Vitiligo sales (just look at CUV sales projections). PME is really priced for absolute perfection with a P/E 10 times greater than Clinuvel, CUV priced for nothing much at all especially if you take out about $200 Million for cash and put the P/E into the teens.
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