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wubing

4,133 Posts.

64

20/01/15

18:50

Post #: 14612250
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Originally posted by asteroider ↑

You cant believe any of the spin the politicians and central banks are putting out. Not in the West and not in China. They have lost control and we are tipping into a deflationary spiral so they are just trying to bluff confidence back into the market. Even if they do start projects, only China has good infrastructure outcomes. In the West 90% of the cost if infrastructure goes into salaries so it wont help Arrium.
All the taxpayer funds are diverted into the pockets of the bureaucrats and union members in the west so they can afford to import more Chinese FMCG.

Every single stimulus attempt by the west has been to promote FMCG imports from China. None have been for domestic, internal economic growth, and none have been critical valuable infrastructure items.

Australias 'infrastructure push' was for pink bats for C. sake. And school halls that didn't meet fire regulations.... Hence.... all for tradies salaries. As for the highways programs. Anyone see how long it takes and hom much stuffing around for a single km build? It's about one-one-hundreth of the Chinese productivity and the roads still start to fall apart in 5 years. This stimulus push will be no different. System is stuck in a dysfunctional loop. Industrial companies are failing and will be allowed to fail in the west because they are not seen to be important and cannot compete with China on cost. We will go back to selling Iron ore to China for $50 a ton and all sit unemployed scoffing maccas and importing Chinese FMCG with the proceeds of export revenues. There is no strategic long term goal for the Australian economy apart for living the good life. All our Tech stocks fail, biotech area also a disaster.

Only MacDonalds, and the banks will survive if we enter a deflationary spiral. Companies like Arium that overleveraged themselves imprudently are direct contributors to a deflationary event and perhaps this is why they are being hung out to dry.

You can see the most likely global economic growth scenario by looking at the commodity prices and share prices of companies like Arrium.

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Asteroider, you appeared a bit over pessimistic. My point is that The QE of EU may change the market sentiment, which is highly possible. And in my opinion, market sentiment is the main cause of the previous shoot up to above 30c. That is why almost all the shares in the same period which get oversold re-bounded quite strongly largely ~20-50% or even beyond. Due to the market sentiment, many tried to get ARI at 30c.
And as long as the sentiment changes, I would buy even strongly and I believe it'll be on Thursday. Anyway, I only bought a small parcel today 2~3k bucks.

ARI Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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