Shorts gig may be over. why?, page-134

Afternoon Fish - I have no problems with your questions. Thanks for taking the time to ask.

1. "why would you take the risk of buying this stock?"
Because it is (using fundamental analysis) in my opinion, very much undervalued. Look at today - we did very well in a sea of red. I think the SP should be much higher. Even on today's prices the dividend (should it be as last year) is around 10%. I have made numerous comments as to why my views are the way they are. I have a very good understanding of this industry and still can not understand how the SP got so low. I know there is a great deal of speculation re shorting and a host of other theories. Maybe it is a blend of all of them - who knows really? Either way, it is my view that SGH is far too cheap and I have seen nothing yet that convinces me otherwise. If I did - I would be out.

2. "Most humans fear the unknown, but you seem to bravely pass it off. IMO"
I think you are right most do fear the unknown. Nothing brave in my position per se but I think that those who can control their fear and replace it with objectivity generally do ok. I am not always successful because even when I set aside my fear aside my fear my ego can often gets in the way. But I make mistakes - analyse what went wrong and make the change. I almost never blame others for my shortcomings. That's the fast track to failure - I think.

3. "Now imo that can be a gamblers point of view, imo, or you haven't exposed yourself too much so that risk dosen't really matter to you. Or your ultra inteligent."
Most things in life can be a bit of a gamble. There is no sure fire method to any of this investing game. If there was we would be loaded. I think we all use what tools and abilities we have and we then roll the dice and see where we end up. Risk does matter but I try not let it put me into the grey zone of 'decision paralysis' - that's a rubbish way to live in my view. I am not sure about being ultra intelligent. I work in a team with some very clever people. They all make and have made some very basic mistakes in life - as we all have. We are a confident bunch of assholes at times I must say!

I can say that I have a very good grasp of Tort, Constitutional and Administrative Law. If one combines those legal fields with the doctrine of the Separation of Powers it should become clear as to why these proposed changes in the UK have more potential to become the biggest red herring ever for SGH holders than a negative impact on earnings. It ight still happen but it is a very long road and there are no certainties when politicians go chasing Tort reform. The Court of Appeal watches with a very close eye. I really do hope that not too many mum and dad investors sold their holdings based on the changes proposed in the UK. I have been very strident on those proposed changes in the UK because I understand them - I think.

4. "because i also dont fully understand why the SP is at $1, due to the current declared fundamentals of the company."
That is a conundrum Fish - no doubt. And I agree. And it is the one question that separates most posters on this SGH forum. I appreciate your commitment to remain short - entirely your decision. However, keep your eyes open as I really think that once the market participants review the basics of this company I think the SP will head north in a bit of a rush. It will then pull back for a breather and then scoot again. If not, then I will wear that but if things are as the company have advised then it is very difficult to arrive at a different conclusion. Pathetic articles like the one in the SMH today offer absolutely nothing to any person. I feel for those mum and dad investors who are relying on the idiots in the media and broking houses.

I trust that addresses your questions Fish and good on you for having the courage of your convictions. I think your position is wrong but who am I to speak with any authority on that? Indeed, who can?

"but how do we KNOW this is the end when no-one on this site seems to have worked out why we are at a $1."

That's a very good question Fish and many are banking on the answer going either way.