Shorts ?, page-61

a T/O is wildly improbable.... unless it is by WPL or CNE (and why would they?)

Well common sense would dictate that your prognosis works only if WPL & CNE are the only interested parties. A logical conclusion would be that a third party could gain access to the jv via FAR by paying a premium price that makes any preemption unlikely from WPL/CNE which gives this third party a crack at preemption of CNE's stake if/when it is placed on the market.

There are four options for another party to gain access to the JV;
1. FAR T/O
2. CNE T/O
3. FAR preempt CNE sale with third parties cash and then gets taken over.
4. Buy CNE's stake when placed on the market and bid at a significant premium to market value to discourage preemption from partners.

The cheapest option would be a CNE T/O and sell the Nth Sea assets but the Indian Govt dispute makes this option less attractive. Options 1 & 3 result in a T/O FAR. The fact that CNOOC chose to partner FAR and not CNE would indicate that options 1 & 3 are on the table. Option 1 would offer less risk to gaining a seat on the JV as option 3 would probably result in paying a significant premium as would option 4.