Gimo, i respect your analysis and work however i agree with...

Gimo, i respect your analysis and work however i agree with crxxxrc. I also have on good authority that its predominately event arb driven activity. Lets not forget about Guavantes (no idea how its spelt) spin out as well, which is worth an additional 2-3c to the arb commercial calcs, so it is more attractive than your analysis suggests. Further, any short has to be covered so Gina or someone else happened to be shorting STX/buying TPD, they wont be building a position up a strategic position by that strategy as when the shares are converted, they will be covered (ie net flat)

If for some reason STX pulled out of the TPD deal, now that has the potential to create a massive short squeeze and STX would be at 60c in no time, especially if you combine that with some strong long only funds buying. However if STX were to do that, there would be reputational damage and i think its unlikely STX pull out. The event arb HF's also must feel its unlikely as they continue to arb the deal.