Hello Bhutos I make the weighted probabilities about 17% but not...

Hello Bhutos

I make the weighted probabilities about 17% but not to worry its about the same and I cannot assume by mathematics to be correct

Nevertheless, if the given gPOS for each structure to be tested are indeed independent of one another as indicated by the company (ie the outcome of one does not affect the probability outcome of another - an assumption that appears to me intuitively unlikely), then the following statistical probabilities apply (again assuming my maths is correct):

Using the probability numbers supplied by the company,

Chance of all the structures showing hydrocarbons = 0.23 x 0.3 x 0.13 x 0.12 x 0.12 x 100 = 0.01%

Chance of none of the structures showing hydrocarbons + 0.77 x 0.7 x 0.87 x 0.88 x 0.88 = 36%

On this basis it is extremely unlikely the combined structure will hold 1 billion barrels or more, but more likely than not that at least one structure will have some sort of hydrocarbon show.

The latter may well account for Josh's Judgement to buy on the basis that it is more likely than not that during the course of drilling the stock will attempt some sort of a run. From what base is uncertain as history shows that all other things being equal the price will tend to ease as the moments of truth approach. Having said that, since the highest probabilities are for the shallower structures the price should be relatively well maintained up to that point.

pj