You're assesment there certainly does sound reasonable... and certainly 6c sounds a lot better than 5.4 in my book, HOWEVER... as has been posted by "ketamine" about 10 minutes ago on another thread... aex do have a history of making announcements after market close (not sure why, but this does seem to be the trend)
Also, we would need to see quite a thinning out on the sell side above 5.4c if this were to climb any higher today (10,945,362 shares between 5.4 and 6c at present, more than double the traded volume so far). It is certainly possible that these will be cleared, but unlikely given that the market seems to be cautiously waiting for the announcement, rather than pre-empting it.
Besides, perhaps a close at 5.4c and then a favourable after-market announcement would be more beneficial to holders in the bigger picture than an announcement this afternoon would... certainly set us up for monday morning as sellers pull their offers at these low levels and buyers have the weekend to consider placing bids, perhaps above 6c... either way we should see 6c come monday... but a close at 5.4c today would probably do more for the stability of the 6c+ levels in the mid term.
I see 7c, however, by this time next week... I do hope my logic in all the above does make some sense
AEX Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held