ITE i.t.& e limited

it&e (ITE).Interesting ....how some of you guys-- you construe...

  1. 399 Posts.
    it&e (ITE).

    Interesting ....how some of you guys-- you construe ....the concept -- " anticipated " --and "anticipation" ....re the upcoming announcement and news over the last few weeks....!!

    Be careful now, it is easy Easy to arbitrage..... "anticipation" ....and perception and reality..... as well....

    From a Company News point of view-- one should never ever--imo-- "anticipate"-- on a week to week basis... It is often oh so.....wealth destructive ....strategically..... from a Value Investor's point of view....

    ...A Couple more quick points....

    Historically .....the (ITE) Half Year Results..... last year.... were on .....the 24th of February...which this year falls on a Saturday--.....

    So on that basis; there is not a logical basis why they(ITE) might not wait to report till Monday thru to Wenesday--of.... NEXT week.... as one possible...... completely normal scenario -- as the half years being towards the latter part of this week.... And of course .....the point really being; it does NOT matter..... a fig......not...a fig!!.

    This of course .....has no bearing on the (ITE) intrinsic value. Not one jot.

    --Secondly--"anticipation"-- is potentially a VERY dangerous paradigm .....because one can be psychologically directed---sadly--- and irrationally imo-- by the force within its....(anticipation) .... inner locus and cause .....and causes....

    And one then forgets ...potentially-- the "permutations and combinations"; which can lead to more detached and cognizant rational behaviour....

    To illustrate with (ITE) at present....

    ITE.... is on a series or iterations and a continuum of what I call; .....[..."Proof of Concept"-- to the equity market" curve]........ on one reading at least-- .....of the proposition that there is a current significant mispricing by the market-- of the (ITE) stock price and consequent value -- hypothesis....

    At a specific point on the (ITE) inflextion curve; there will be a (ITE) "tipping point"-- and the pressure of evidence that (ITE) has a winning set of IT Software Solutions to a lucrative long term Global Market....points to a implied higher valuation ....will gain .....a new consensus. .....and opeen the floddgates...

    That pressure.... is currently building, and building its every increasing pressure ....on those (ITE) flood gates as we speak....

    -- That evidencne we now already know .....will not include-- a positive EBITA number this half.

    The market knows that already; and has priced (ITE) accordingly.

    So the market awaits more futurue earnings "signals" and evidence...--in this case Global Risk Management and other Financial Market Technical Software Solutions Bank Revenue Positive forward contracts--that will add evidence to the hypothesis-- and suggest it&e (ITE) is lilkely to get ever increasing traction and scalability -- and win more and more and more of similar Global bank Contract Tenders .....in the weeks .....and months ahead.....

    Againnt this..... is the Sarbanes Oxley and Basel II Compliance Regulatory backdrop.....to reinforce the positve ROI gains..... that can be made.... by the Banks having superior (ITE) Software firepower in Mission Critical trading areas....

    So where does this fit ....with "anticipating" this week and next..... ??...

    It fits because ....."Guess What--????" .....--

    Guys; right now; every other ASX company on the ASX is also...now.....also--- Reporting and putting out there Investor updates at this exact same time!!

    And that means ....Often there needs consequently; to be "digestion time".......by potential new capital allocators-- prioritizing this stock(ITE) against other possible stocks ....as the most efficient place .....to allocate their Investment capital....to....

    That does ....not.... always happen....in 24 hours--and instantaneously....

    That ...can ....take as long as 2-3-- weeks--after any news announcements...

    To be crystal clear-- I said it "can"--not that it will .....btw!!!!

    ....Also.....

    The Good news is ......in the case of (ITE)-- right now going forward-- that in the case of (ITE) the story gets progressively better...and better....and then even better.

    It is not like ....after the next 2-3 new contracts-- that is the end of the (ITE) "story"... Pack up and go Home.

    No way ...no way..... sirreeee...

    It just simply means ....we get to see how much easier the next 2-3 new clients are.....for (ITE) to land and get-- and the next 2-3 Bank Clients-- after that...and ...again..after the next 2-3 Bank Global Clients after that.... and so the story goes on and on....

    All at the same time--putting more ....and more..... and more..... pressure on the ite(ITE) Larger Competitors....to "pull their finger out"....

    .... The Moral of this (ITE) Story and Bottom Line...?

    This is not --imo-- a ..."one bolt in the locker"-- one "crack of the whip" story-- jsut wait for the spike and make a quick dash for the exit....

    --.... No way ...no way..... sirreeee......

    ......Have a look soon as you get a moment guys; at the Price Over Time Graph ---as it relates to the Time Line of the Stock Price Rise for stocks like:-- Emitch,Austin Engineering, RCR Tomlinson in the early days, Melbourne IT, IBA Health, The Reject Shop, IPN Medical and Jetset--as some quick examples-- and see what the time line..really and actually-- is---...

    Even when they doubled and trippled ...that is over a period of 2-3 months-- and then the ten (10) bagger phenonena later on-- that is often over between 7 and 23 months....

    My own interpretation--re the (ITE) Time Line-- subject to the data we await-- (and REMEMBER ....it is only the first --only the VERy First-- of a set--of a series..... of further supporting data... and confirmatory evidence--it is not--NOT-- a static situation-- )-- and subject to price pressure from Merger & Acquisition Activity-- is that we will conservatively see 75 cents.... by between.....the April 20 / and the very start and beginning of May...2007--this current calendar year.

    ..... However; If there are .....big Global players in a Merger & Acquisition Play..... before then--add 35 --45 cents to the number; and subtract one month....for the start of the action-- with the FINAL negoitated share price being achieved ....by actually....about the same time period.....!!!

    - So in your "anticipation phase now"-- maybe-- remember firstly .....the Delayed Reaction Response that often occurs-- of Larger insto Buyers--of up to 2-3 weeks in some situations--not always--but it can happen-- ....

    And also remember incrementalism.... ie: -- (...as I said before-- REMEMBER ....it is only the first --the very FIRST ...of a upcoming series series..... of further positive supporting contractural sets and bundles of data... and confirmatory evidence--which logic dictactes--will get more frequent and better--due to the greater Global banks awareness and acquiesence of the (ITE) Value Proposition-- becoming stronger and stronger--which is.....btw.... called evidence of stronger & stronger-- growing (ITE) Intrinsic Value Brand Equity)-- ....

    ...What to do now imo...????

    ....>>>=-- .... Bottom Line--.??-- ....

    .....Be cool, be calm, be detached, be relaxed--be rational ....and remember that.... imo--.....Patience Pays......--and even more Patience Pays even more !!-- so often--imo-- in these types of developing situations-- even more ....

    ....Food for thought.....

    Kindest Regards,

    Robbo.



















 
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