Should be at least double, page-57

YAL is trading at around a PE of 5 based on FY23 earnings (NPAT). This is the number you see on NABTRADE/COMMSEC (for example). But the market doesn't care about FY23 and is solely interested in future years earnings and particularly FY24 earnings.

Assuming coal prices remain constant for the rest of FY24 and assuming a mid point of guidance for production and costs, then YAL's NPAT will fall substantially in FY24 relative to FY23. So therefore the PE based on FY24 earnings rises relative to FY23 for a given share price (say $6.50). If you assume an average thermal coal price received by YAL of $A160 for the whole of FY24 (in the MQ 24 the actual price was $A159 per tonne for thermal coal), then YAL is currently trading on a PE of 9/10 based on FY24 estimated NPAT.