At 180,00 tonnes annualized the company was averaging $550/ton...

At 180,00 tonnes annualized the company was averaging $550/ton cost. Latest revised projection of 330,000 tonnes (based on lower recoveries) should result in roughly $350/per tonne.

If March production of 19,000 tonnes holds steady for the rest of the year = 171,000 tonnes for the next three quarters +48,000 from Q1 = 219,000 tonnes on the year. Company has said their objective is 240,000 tonnes so should slightly increase each month from here. Even if they don't increase from the current rate, given the high fixed costs of the operation, at 220,000 tonnes average cost should drop significantly.

45,000 tonnes x $550/ton = $99,000,000 in annual costs. 330,000 x $350 cost = $115,500,000 at full production. So the next 150,000 tonnes should roughly cost $16,500,000 to produce ($110 per tonne). Let's assume marginal costs at this point are a bit higher given low recoveries (70%). Even at $150 per tonne this increase of 40,000 tonnes (from 180 to 220) should result in $477 cost per ton. They should be able to declare they are cash flow positive on a C1 basis sometime in the middle of this quarter. Whole operation is likely cash flow positive late Q3 and into early Q4.

Easily the best visibility we've had into a healthy cash position since production commenced.

Related: China battery makers are working through a bottleneck in production which should lead to better 2H demand despite subsidy cut. But 2H will slow because of a higher base.

Today Yutong bus announced Q1 NEV sales +56% YoY.