re: should fly.....really it should!!!! mkhc
HDR has 21.6% of Chinguetti. It is currently considered to hold around 100 mbbl by the JV but HDR's technicval team believes it will eventually come in closer to 140 mbbl. This is is area B and there is also Banda in A/B (~ 100 mbbl and HDR around 22.0% and now Tiof in B (100-200 mbbl and HDR 21.6%).
There seems to be a very big discvount in the current sp for:
1) Sovereign risk
2) Potential reserves not yet declared "commercial"
3) The possibility of further capital raisings
4) Unknown interests that keep selling it down whenever it pushes much beyond 70 cents (this was the price of a significant placement last October and they did another in July 2003 at 55 cents in the UK). I suspect these players are taking profit (those in at 55 cents) and getting out square (those in at 70 cents).
Once Chinguetti is declared commercial in December there will IMHO be a significant rerating (particularly if project debt financing is wrapped up - lowering the need for more share dilution).
H
HDR
hardman resources limited
