Reissue of previous post with corrections:It is disturbing to...

Reissue of previous post with corrections:

It is disturbing to think that Paul Macleman and previous board were pursuing further acquisitions at this time. Very enterprising but we already have high risk with re-examination of Patent 179 and slow sales of Brevagen. I could not believe capital raising was for new acquisitions. I thought the capital raising was actually a smoke screen for raising working capital. I'm glad Mervyn Jacobson decided on this course of action. Of course, I would like to hear his reasoning.

if sales of Brevagen are maintained at about 60 units per month and all other expenditure and revenues remain the same, there is sufficient funds to operate through the end of June 2013. If Brevagen sales reach approximately 1520 units* per month I believe the company would reach a break even point on a monthly basis. I estimated a previous record sales month of 71 units in July 2012, and I read a post that speculated that there may be recent sales results 100% better than the record month.

Securing licensing agreements is not predictable from where I sit so I am counting on nothing until next financial year. I note that the previous 179 patent re-examination was filed in June 2009 and completed in May 2010. (ASX Announcement May 10, 2010). It may be that a more compelling argument has been made this time and has blown out estimates for a determination.

I believe working capital will be required. Waiting to hear latest Brevagen sales figures and a business plan.

DYOR.

Malcolm


* Brevagen monthly sales estimate:
Based on Brevagen test cost of $600, margin of 80% ($480) and net operating cash flows per quarter of about -$2.1million.

2,100,000/ 480 = 4375 per quarter

4375 / 3 = 1458 per month

I assume an average sales of 60 per month were taken up in the net cash flow.

So sales required is estimated at 1520 per month.