Should we sell during share price falling, page-29

The fundamentals of the story may not have changed, but the next few announcements will be "misses"

Reasons:
There has been a natural supply disruption due to the uncertainty around the Chinese regulations. Simplest market research ever - friends who work at Woolworths and as pharmacists are reporting that A2 infant formula, Aptamil and other brand are ALL not going out of stock as quickly BECAUSE multi-buys of 4 or more tins have fallen off a cliff.

In addition, freight forwarders have been quoted in various articles in the press saying they have suspended activities / seen volumes drop off severely.

Results:
This will cause a blip in the numbers for this year. The supply is not being taken up at the same rate. Simple economics - less units sold will = less revenue and profits for this very large contributor to A2M revenue.

In my view that means the "lows" will not have been reached until the market hears these announcements, sells off in response, then can look at the business with fresh eyes from that point on.

In my view the story is still strong, and the rollout in UK in US are underappreciated, but that did not stop me selling at a small loss.

The trick is to make educated judgements about future news flow that will affect your investment. I sold for a 5% loss, with the result that I avoided a much larger 30% loss. That means I can buy back in closer to the eventual lows, and as a result I will be able to participate in much more of the upside when the bad news is digested and the business moves on, rather than a buy and hold strategy that sees you lose capital and not be able to benefit from all of the recovery.