should you buy or sell ?

I'll no doubt get hammered for this analysis again but I've tried to put values on what the market currently believes LNC is worth.

Based on today's high SP of $2.56 the Market currently values LNC at $1.33B.

This is my guess as to the breakdown of $1.33B as it stands today.

Royalty $350M
Teresa $150M
Misc Coal $50M
Shale $360M
UCG Tech $200M
US OIL $500M
Alaska $100M
Cash $50M
Drawn Debt -$285M
Provions -$45M
Future Cashburn -$100M
Net Total $1.33B

Note Undrawn debt is $120M so total cash available is approx $170M ($120+$50)


So are these items fair value as at today

Royalty
I'd say fair value at this point in time. As production gets nearer and the volumes are proved in 2016 the value will increase.


Teresa
They failed to sell it before for the right price so I have no idea what the fair value of this is.


Misc Coal
Too small to worry about


Shale
Until we see a deal done we won't know the current fair value. Whatever any major company is willing to invest in drilling for 50% of the deposit will determine the current fair value.
Of course if the drilling is successful that will then increase the value but as it stands you have to wait for drilling results to revalue the shale.


UCG
Until we see a deal completed and we know what the terms of the deal are it is almost impossible to value this.


US oil
Current gross production is approx 6400bopd.
The last published reserve figure was 13.5Mbo so based on a value of $500M that works out at $37 per barrel which is very high. So to justify $500M we need to see an increase in reserves.


Alaska
Wild card could be worth a lot or it could end up being a dud. Upcoming drilling will give us a much better idea


Cash/Debt/provisions
My estimated actual as at today.


Future Cash Burn
There is still some net cash burn so this has to be taken into account.


No doubt everyone has there own view on each of these items but this is how I see that the market currently see's the stock valuation based on the current situation.

Please note that these valuations are not what I believe to be the true values I'm just trying to show what the MARKET CURRENTLY thinks fair value is.