Well you called for downside, so I will try to do my best.
1. GDN management on board (John Hasleby and Richard Sciano) - enough said.
2. Have a history of not meeting stated timelines - originally they said they would commence mining in late 2008.
3. Have previously given sensational headlines to ramp their projects.
"On 9/5/08, WCU released drill results from their Daneros deposit where the headline stated intervals of 3.4% U3O8 and 17% copper, but if you read on it was only over 30cm."
4. No details that I can find of how much they will receive for their ore, or processing costs/margins from the White Messa mill. Economics, whatever they are, will no doubt get better as the uranium price improves. This is probably pending the granting of a permit.
I need to check some calculations on their potential cash generation before I offer any opinion on the value of the shares at the current sp, but will note:
187,933,555 shares on issue at the current sp of $0.345 gives an undiluted mkt cap of $64.8 m. (48% of the shares are in escrow until March 2010, but should still be counted)
91,564,902 options gives a current fully diluted mkt cap of ~$96.4 m (@$0.345).
Although this will also lead to a cash injection of ~$23 m. The enterprise value for their uranium projects upon option exercise would be about $73 m.
Either way the issue of a mining permit is a definite positive for the company.
Cheers
SBC
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