show me the money ! how big is the dividend ?, page-13

aka hooter, I agree to an extent with your numbers, but it is important that a few things are made clear. I know that CDU holders have a thing against "non holders" posting about your stock, but I come in peace :)

Here we go...

You said - "Now if your going to shoot me down please give your alternate scenarios based on grades of at least 3% for the purpose of the exercise no one is interested in running the numbers on the 1.2% JORC grade."

Okay. So if CDU want to be processing ore that has a grade around 4%, then they won't have a whole lot of resource to work with...

Let me do the forbidden thing and look at the JORC again.

The resource of the project is 245Mt @ 0.42% (1Mt Cu) or 31Mt @ 1.24% (384kt Cu) depending on the cut offs.

So while it would be reasonable to expect an annual earnings per share of $2 if 120kt of Cu is sold each year, this productivity probably won't be sustainable as the grades drop down from 4% to around 1%-2% Cu mineralisation.

What does this mean? Well the same amount of ore will be processed each year, but the end product won't be as high as 120kt if the grade of the ore itself is lower.

Now what I can't understand is how the 20-year offtake agreement could be worth $600M a year to CDU, because this is based on processing a 4% Cu orebody, but this grade will not last any more than a few years, let alone 20 years....

In fact, if the resource of the project is 1Mt using the low cut off grade, then how can a 20-year offtake agreement be valid. If it is supposedly worth $1B a year, then that would indicate sales of around 120kt of copper each year based on current prices. At that rate, the resource at large would last 8 years, not 20...

Has the value of the agreement (i.e. $600M a year to CDU) been overstated?

In a nutshell, what I am claiming is that a 20-year offtake cannot possibly be worth $1B a year, because there is simply not enough copper in the ground to support such a figure!

Again, I come in piece. Because to be honest, I am confused more than anything.

I can see how it will be worth $1B a year over 8 years, but not 20.

Can someone please show me how an annual value of $1B a year can be sustained over a 20 year agreement based on the current resource?

That's all I'm asking.