We are now nearing a critical point I think. The cash needs to roll in and I am not one who thinks that the entitlements will just sell themselves, some favourable math is required if that were the only play I think. We did not even get a Best Efforts agreement with regard to under writers, best efforts is a lower level fudge where a small fee still comes in and all you do is your best, are they not always doing that
We have had it intimated that any shortfall from the entitlements will be offered back etc , but in the end any shortfall will not get taken back by the wider market and I feel sure a deal would have been done to take underwritten stocks by the sigs, was not done in any formal way?. Bit of a catch 22 on the entitlements management, what you want is a nice premium on the number over the take up period, but that is hard to get because all you do as a holder is sell into it and buy your entitlement. I suspect they will wait for completion and hope its better than a 30% ish uptake (what number do you have?) and then smash down a few "out tray" announcements, I figure they must have a few good un's, could they be good enough for sigs to just take all they can see?
Anyway this thread is to see what the folks think, clock is ticking and I am sure Bell Potter are all over this in strategic terms, they must be and I for one would love to know how they are going to play this. Some have said to me they should have got a underwritten deal, what's the go, well IMHO they could have and did not bother, after all it's often just a bigger fee (not insignificant) did they just decide it was not needed and if so why so ?
Lots of questions, but at least this is an attempt to talk about AVB and its near term.
Cheers
Phil.
