This twitter thread sums up what talked me off the edge a month...

This twitter thread sums up what talked me off the edge a month or so ago.

Before Xmas, I had an email drafted to my broker to sell my entire holding of TVN. Its not as large as some, but also not insignificant.

It was sitting in my drafts for a week before I deleted it.

I'm acutely aware that currently Vanadium mines are not entirely profitable, but I always took the punt that the Tivan process works, swinging production back to profitability. Back in the day, SMS were confident and CSIRO are now also (given their involvement). This would make vanadium processing viable. For me, TVN/TNG was always about the processing tech.

I was really questioning if we could get the funding for this. Yes Grant is a money man but this seemed like an insurmountable task, given the massive capex required and that number getting higher all the time with inflation, and TVN getting put further and further away from the finishing line - even with recent progress, we are still further behind where we were (and yes I know now that Peak was a dead horse).

What made me delete the sell order, was mostly geopolitical. I always hated trading on politics but in this case, this wasn't an election cycle fad, the decision by Allied countries to be independant of a single source supply chain is a long term strategic goal. Recent worldwide events, as terrible as they are, highlighted this need.

The real value that Grant has shown, besides all the obvious at a business level, he has firmly aligned TVN with that goal at government level. I believe its put TVN in the spotlight for Aus, USA, JP gov. From a policy point of view, TVN looks like a horse they would want to back. The link up with CSIRO was a master stroke, I don't know if it was a push or pull scenario but if we were pushed together, I'd double down my holding.