Thanks undernz, your analysis supports exactly what I have been...

Thanks undernz, your analysis supports exactly what I have been saying. The 5309 tonnes at $6.60 is below the market price that I quoted (and everyone tried to deny). You are probably right about the transfer pricing, which also supports my hypothesis that they have been artificially boosting the food division profitability.

I'm not sure to what extent the 2016 harvest has been de-risked. There is still 20% unsold and of the 80% committed some of this may appear as inventory in the food division.

Finally, spot price at $8 is in line with the 10% recovery that we already know about. That's more than $5 below 2015 average pool price, so SHV's profit is still on-track for a massive hit.

I don't know who is driving the price higher but they are going to get burnt.