"Fundamentally”, SHV seems a sound business." No argument there, particularly in contrast to its beginnings as an MIS.
"However, chart wise it is emerging from the bottom of its cycle and i can see that and trade it."
As far as I can tell, the charts don't take into account crop set (bees, weather), international almond prices (set mostly by the size and quality of the Californian crop, which appears to be on a long-term downward trajectory), rainfall (potential for tree damage due to sodden soil - perhaps mostly an issue at Hillston and possibly Piangil - or during the harvest period).
All of the above is largely beyond the Company's control, at least in the short term. Long term, Select could mitigate the effects be investing in another product and in a different area of the country.
Of course, the rain may clear up, the rivers may not flood (so they won't have to build a levee around the Carina plant), the almond price might double and Select makes a motzah.
Either way, it's near impossible to make a definitive forecast. Which is always the problem with listed agriculture companies. If I was a trader, Select would not be in my portfolio.
The charts might also suggest that the market in general is near the bottom of its cycle. As long as you have stop losses and don't use derivatives, you might be on safer ground looking at beaten down stocks in the ASX200, or even in indices, here and overseas.
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Last
$3.58 |
Change
-0.030(0.83%) |
Mkt cap ! $507.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.61 | $3.61 | $3.55 | $247.9K | 69.09K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 4949 | $3.57 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$3.59 | 1799 | 9 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 4849 | 3.570 |
8 | 4797 | 3.560 |
8 | 4899 | 3.550 |
8 | 10278 | 3.540 |
4 | 20811 | 3.530 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.590 | 1799 | 9 |
3.600 | 2171 | 8 |
3.610 | 4031 | 9 |
3.620 | 5180 | 7 |
3.630 | 17924 | 6 |
Last trade - 13.40pm 04/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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