I just trawled through my old analysis on SHV on the average...

I just trawled through my old analysis on SHV on the average prices they've achieved over the previous years as compared to the average prices in the market. What I found was that SHV was able to achieve anywhere between 10-30% extra premium on top of the average almond prices.

Yesterday's announcement was $9.36/kg for 43% of committed crop, and the previous announcement just 2 weeks ago was $9.41/kg for 38% of committed crop. Doing the maths, essentially they sold another 5% of crop for average price of AUD9/kg. At this period, the california almond price has been only ranging between AUD7-7.70/kg. Which means that they've been anywhere between 16-28% premium, very much in line with my prior analysis.

This is telling us that they can easily attain an average of $8/kg IF almond prices return to the lowest point achieved recently at $7/kg for the rest of the year and assuming that SHV does not achieve any premium in its pricing at all. However, the more likely scenario in my opinion is that SHV could attain a minimum of $8.30/kg over the whole of FY16 if $7.50/kg is the average price received for the rest of the crop.


The analysts have only valued SHV at $7/kg for next 3 years in their analysis, and now guess what they'll have to do if SHV achieved price is in the range of $8-$9/kg?