I found its interesting that people still believe "trend", jus...

I found its interesting that people still believe "trend", jus because the price is falling/rising in the past year/month/week, it will keep falling/rising in next year/month/week. It's like driving a car by look at the mirror.

What's more interesting is people think they can predict the sp purely by Almond price.

Sp can be impacted by external forces, e.g:
Currency, Macro economy, Weather, Politic, Inflation, New technology, etc...

Sometimes these forces are pushing at the same direction, push the sp extream high/low. Sometimes, they are offsetting each other, some forces last longer, some forces are stronger, some forces just suddenly turned direction, some forces disappear for a few days.

Predict almond price is hard enough, because it can be impacted by currency, politic, new technology, weather etc. how do these genius analysts predict the sp? They don't ever know if it's sunny or rainy tomorrow.

Let's assume the condition will be falling back to the end of 2010, right after GFC. AUD:USD=1, almond price was Aud$5/kg, California drough hasn't started yet. Shv made $19m npat in that year, base on today market cap: 314m. The return is still 6%. Maybe the sp will be keep falling, but to me, it's a safe bet.

Sorry about my poor English.