imo what is weighing heavily on the sp are the 2 major...

imo what is weighing heavily on the sp are the 2 major misunderstandings of macros that drive demand for Relemza:

1. The difference between seasonal and pandemic flu.
2. the difference between anti-virals and vaccines.

H1N1 is the new seasonal flu - for how long, who knows, it drives some sales of anti-virals but not alot - possibly more now its major competitor is suspect. What H1N1 has done is show that the world is correct to be concerned about pandemic flu - we got lucky with H1N1 with its mildness - maybe not next time around. Pandemic stockpiles of Tammiflu are of quetionable value and prudent management of these would indicate a significant re-weighting in Relenza's favour. Even if LANI makes Relenza redundant (in the fullness of time) any stockpiled Relenza would still be of value.

As for anti-virals vs vaccines - anti-virals (Relenza or LANI), if used correctly do work against a substantial slice of the influenza footprint! Vaccines have a very short shelflife (and are very much strain specific) - both literally and from a technical point of view - the inflenza virus is too smart. Vaccines against other viruses (smallpox, chickenpox, rubella etc etc) are consistently effective because the virus does not mutate to anywhere near the same degree as influenza.

My point is that once the holders/traders of BTA who are confused by these things have left the register, then BTA will begin an upward movement to more closely reflect fundamentals. Timing of this is likely to be the Dec qtr GSK sales figures.

I am not an analyst (or biochemist) - dyor