Moly Mines continues significant uptrend; soars 15.8% on strong volume Moly Mines (MOL.AU) rose for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday bringing its four-day rise to 69.50c or 72.8%. The stock price soared 22.50c (or 15.8%) to close at $1.65. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 90.8 points (or 2.1%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 13.7%. Price Change % 4-day 1-month 1-year MOL 72.8% 251.1% -23.6% Primary Metals 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% All Ordinaries Index 3.1% 18.7% -11.2%
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Significant Uptrend Price volume trend: the price soared 72.8% in the last week and 251.1% in the last month. This has been propped up by strong volume of 5.0 times average for the week and by robust volume 2.5 times average for the month. Relativities: today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 95. In the Australian market of 1,411 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 98 which means it is outperforming 98% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal. Also, the relative strength percentile is rising at 98 for 6 months, 99 for 3 months and 99 for 1 month. Moving average price (MAP): the price to 200-day MAP ratio is 4.16, a bullish indicator. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 62.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 40.0c, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to 40.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator. Breakout: the stock traded at an eleven-month high of $1.70 today. The bulls are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close exceeding yesterday's levels. Support: the support price is hovering at the 45.50c level. Volume traded at the fragile support price zone was 0.3 time average during the single occasion when the support price was breached. In the last one month the first low was at 45.50c on Jul 14. Resistance: the stock hit a new eleven-month high of $1.70 on decreased volume index of 6.2 on Thursday. Resistance is apparent at $1.70. Volume was 6.2 times average during the single occasion when the resistance price was breached in the last one month. In the last one month the high was at $1.70 on Aug 13. Rises to Falls: In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 33:31 or 1.1:1.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday low of $1.48 and eleven-month high of $1.70, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Volume: there were 2,986,494 shares worth $4.8 million traded. The volume was 6.2 times average trading of 480,840 shares. % Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 28.3% to the 12-month high of $2.30 a year ago on 02 Sep, 2008.
COPPER, GOLD AND PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDICES AND SECTORS The stock is in 4 indices, 2 sectors and 2 commodities. The following index and sectors rose setting the trend for its rise of 15.8%: All Ordinaries index of 448 stocks traded today, which was up 90.8 points or 2.1% to 4,436.7, Total Australian Market of 1411 stocks traded today, which was up 96.1 points or 1.8% to 5,411.4, Primary Metals sector of 38 stocks traded today, which was up 147.2 points or 0.2% to 77,558. Percentile Rank 1-day 1-month 6-months MOL 95 99 98 Primary Metals 46 29 27 All Ordinaries Index 61 65 47
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS Trailing one week: the stock rose four times (80% of the time) and fell once (20% of the time). The volume was 5.0 times average trading of 2,404,200 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a week ago is $1,435 [vs $1,026 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $435(or rise of 43.5%). Trailing one month: the stock rose fifteen times (65% of the time), fell seven times (30% of the time) and was unchanged once (4% of the time). The volume was 2.5 times average trading of 10,578,480 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a month ago is $3,511 [vs $1,189 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $2,511(or rise of 251.1%). Trailing one year: the value of $1,000 invested one year ago is $764 [vs $944 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital loss of $236. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -23.6%. PV$1000 1-month 1-year MOL $3,511 $764 Primary Metals $1,043 $990 All Ordinaries Index $1,189 $944
FINANCIALS Half Yearly Report released on March 03, 2009; year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period: In the half year to December 31, 2008 total revenue was down 1.6% to $758,000; net loss of $4.3 million.
Annual Report for the year ended June 30, 2008 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)- Favourable Changes: total revenue up 277.75% to $A3.6m ($US3.4m); net profit recovery to $A4.3m ($US4.1m); EPS recovery to $A0.05 (US4.87c); Net tangible assets per share up 70.61% to $A1.8 ($US1.7); total revenue to total assets up 55.36% to 0.02. Unfavourable Changes: losses in 4 years out of the last 5 years; total debt to net tangible assets up from 0.04% to 0.2%; debt to equity up 457.32% to 0.002; total liabilities to total assets up 16.83% to 0.2; current ratio down 46.35% to 1.6; operating cash flow is negative; total number of shares outstanding up 38.3% to 86,191,677; Working capital to total assets down 65.73% to 9.8%. Major Common Size Ratios: total non current assets to total assets up from 56.57% to 72.81%; total current assets to total assets down from 43.43% to 27.19%; cash to total assets down from 36.74% to 25.61%; fixed assets to total assets up from 0.44% to 22.89%; interest expenses to revenues down from 1.24% to 0.4%.
FUNDAMENTALS Earnings: the earnings yield of 3.1% is 0.6 times the 10-year bond yield of 5.5%. P/E: the trailing twelve months P/E is 32.5 times, giving it a percentile rank of 10.1 by P/E. (rank 500 out of 559). P/S: the price/sales ratio is 40.0. Price to NTA: The net tangible asset backing per share is $1.82. The price to net tangible asset backing per share is 0.9. Valuation MOL Primary Metals P/E 32.5x 77.0x P/E/G 0.01x P/S 40.0x 28.2x
Size MOL Rank in Primary Metals MCAP ($) 154.6 million 10 Assets ($) 189.8 million 9 Revenue ($) 3.6 million 16
