You are right to say ASX has completely misread whats going to happen with oil shares. What usually happens at this time in the cycle is a rush of mergers - T/O of companies with good production/proven reserves/cash.Today with see a proposed $11 billion merger, yesterday we saw a company that the ASX said was only worth A$22 being offered A$350 million for part of their holdings. Over the last year several oil stocks have been grabbed on the cheap by asian investors. The historical pattern is good oil stocks such as SXY and several others will vanish and Australian investors in oil stocks will be mugged yet again as in previous years.
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