Hi Stiffy,I am still positive the company. If you refer to my...

Hi Stiffy,

I am still positive the company. If you refer to my earlier posts, I expect a few weeks of volatility due to the immense overhang coming on. Fundamentals are still there.

I repeat. If you believe EBITDA is going to be $400mil or under in FY'10, then maybe this is not the stock for you. If you believe EBITDA is going to be $450mil or above, then buying at these levels will be prudent.

There is a lot of short term concern over their cashflows etc. (I cannot comment as that would be pure speculation at this stage) Waste division (both hard and liquids) should pick up from here. I believe NZ's economy is close to as bad as it gets. In Australia, commodities are going up in value (recycled commodities should do better, especially recycled metals). Companies like Bluescope are restarting their No.5 furnance. The list goes on. Generally, if you believe business and economic conditions have bottomed, then TPI's revenues will only grow from here. In my book, waste production is directly proportional to economic activity. The analysts out there will try to conjure reasons/ financial ratios to support their views, but there is NO rocket science to it. More activity = more waste.

As for their commercial vehicle division (not their main division), the high AUD$ should bode well for them. Activity should pick up slightly as the government has extended the tax deductions (10% to 30%) for medium & large businesses till the end of 2009. You may see a slight uptick in this HY, however, don't hold your breath hoping for a stellar run.

TPI's main division is waste. Their major revenues and income comes from waste (liquid and solid).

I know this is going to sound weird, but trust me...... if you are a long term holder of TPI, you want to see the share price lower than $1.20 over the next 2+ weeks. You don't want to see the share price trading close to $1.30 over the next 2+ weeks.

We shall talk again after the retail bookbuild. If you are a long term TPI holder, please be patient and hope that the share price is lower than $1.20 over the next 2+ weeks. Hope this helps.

Happy investing.