silex projects making good progress, page-20

Justin,

If i put your assumptions into my model i get $6.25/share. From the assumptions you are using it sounds like yours is more complex, but the real differences in value come down to the assumptions

My assumptions are vastly different in the following areas:

1)GE Market Share: You say starting at 5%. I say based on the 30-40% cost advantage GE will have over any competitor that this will be more like 50% by 2012 and will continue to grow higher. I appreciate that selling nuclear fuel isnt like selling bananas, but the cheapest suppliers will survice. GE has global reach and has already flat out told the world that they are ramping up their nuclear arm, from mine to plant.

2) World Market: You say USD$10b by 2012. I cant say with any certainty that its going to be massively higher, it all depends on how governments around the world respond to global warming and political pressures, but there apparently around 150 plants under construction at the moment. The thing is that much of the enriched uranium powering todays plants has been coming from decommissioned cold war warheads. The decommissioning process is winding down. Meaning demand for enrichment services will rise faster than nuclear fuel use. With this in mind i would guess closer to 20b by 2012.

3)Growth rate for enrichment services: You say 10% I would say closer to 30%. It all depends on how governments tackle emissions vs politics vs costs. If geothermal/wave/solar/wind are still unable to provide a meaningful contribution to energy supply at reasonable cost and people get serious about cutting emmissions then nuclear will grow at closer to 30%, remembering it currently supplies around 15% of world power.
I see massive potential for growth of nuclear in China:
-Massive energy needs
-By far the biggest emitter in 2012
-pollution deeply impacts quality of life there right now
-government which operates fairly autocratically(less political concerns)
-biggest concern is $/MWh
Nuclear ticks all the boxes.

Rather than go with the full range of $30 to $200/share ill go through my best guess scenario

20b industry
GE market share=50%
10b GE revenue
SLX rev=10b*12%=US$1.2b
SLX rev=1.5bAUD

If we put SLX on a PE of 15 (conservative for a company which i believe will have EPS growth of around 30%) then that values them at $22.5b. Current market cap is 628m. So if the cap grows to 22.5b by 2012 then SLX will appreciate 35 times. $4.41*35=$158. Discount that back 4 years using whatever rate you like and youve got a pretty big share price.