silly question, page-5

Some back of the envelope production numbers that may answer the question alluded to by the header.

Assuming EXT is ‘allowed’ to go through to production –is $50 possible?

A $50 share price would require EPS of about $3.00 based on a reasonable P/E ratio of 16 times.

With 250 million shares currently on issue plus, (say) a further 50million shares issued at (say) $10 to raise $500 million for mine development costs (leaving near zero debt).

that would mean a $900 million NPAT would be roughly required to generate A $3.00 EPS (ie $900million /300million shares).

With a CONSERVATIVE 300million lbs in the ground, a long term production target of 15 million lbs would be possible. BMN is targeting 5 to 7 million lbs from their smaller deposit which has roughly half the grade so the same number of milled tonnes by EXT should mean double the production.

Achieving a $900 mill profit based on 15 mill lbs would require a net margin after tax of $60 per lb produced or a pre-tax margin of approx $80/lb

Current estimated cost per lb of production should be sub $US20 vs the spot price of $US50 which gives a margin of US$30 or A$40. – a bit short of the $80/lb worked out above!

But wait! There’s more....

Cameco trades on a current P/E of 32…. Twice the figure I used above! ERA trades at 28 x earnings!

If EXT ultimately proves up the quality and scale of deposit we hope for (as looks highly likely) then why wouldn’t the market apply a ‘Cameco’ style P/E? Its production growth potential would be huge and the P/E would carry a premium to reflect this potential.

Then there’s the long term price of U at $US65/lb (i think?) which is probably more relevant than the spot price so I have probably understated the real margin. You can write your own ticket on the nargin should there be any further rise in the uranium price!

So I guess a $50 share price is theoretically possible - oh and did I mention the $2 dividend based on 65% payout of earnings from a debt free producer?.

Again, I stress these are very rough figures and I welcome anyone to shoot them down.

I went through this exercise purely to satisfy my own curiosity after reading the header on this thread. In my opinion, the $50 is entirely possible over a 2 to 3 yr timeframe.

The real question is however, will the sharks circling ever allow EXT to see its full potential? Recent corporate developments indicate the real profit cream may be snatched from under shareholders noses – and that’s even if my calculations are merely HALF RIGHT!